The Online Photographer

SL killer? Screen grab from Nikon's latest teaser.

Just a brief question—do you want the coming Canikon mirrorless cameras to succeed?

I have a mild case of the traditional American attitude of "rooting for the underdog," and I also have a little problem with bully capitalism, meaning, corporations using their wealth and strength to take over competing businesses when those competing businesses get too uppity. I'm not sure either of those prejudices even pertain in this case. But what we're about to witness here is probably not innovation. (Except perhaps down in the details.) It's just larger corporations looking at the existing landscape and calculating how they might use their strength and power to appropriate pieces of the pie the other guys have, using me-too products based on those other guys' successful products.

And I find myself nagged by this sense that Canikon already have enough pie. And that it might not be in my interest for them to hog more.

Nothing against Canikon.

Of course, the market decides...but then, that's not what I'm asking. I'm asking, what do you hope happens—not what will happen, or what should happen based on Econ 101 ideas.

But, speaking of that, even if you are a diehard, survival-of-the-biggest, law-of-the-jungle, nature-red-in-tooth-and-claw free marketeer, would you be copacetic if, let's say, Canikon ends up driving Panasonic and Olympus out of the camera business? How about if they succeed to the point of dealing the death stroke to Sony and Leica? Would you be happy that happened?

I'm a little resentful, too, that there's so little real innovation in the camera sector these days (at least from Canikon), and that this probably ain't that. They're not addressing the smartphone juggernaut, the complexity problem, sharing (well, they're addressing sharing a little), or computational photography, among other things. This move might turn out to be just an exercise in Machiavellian, business-school, by-the-numbers market share manipulation. Probably. Maybe.

But then, I should shut up. Maybe I'm being bigoted, and anyway I'm asking you what you think, not what you think of what I think.

Mike

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(To see all the comments, click on the "Comments" link below.)
Featured Comments from:

Tom Currier: "Nikon has innovated its way to the best DSLR on the planet in the D850. I’m hoping they will apply their know-how to making the best mirrorless camera too. From what I’ve read, they will be introducing a couple of terrific cameras on the 23rd."

c.d.embrey: "Nothing would make me happier than for the über-arrogant Nikon to go out of business. When it comes to satisfying consumers' wants and needs Nikon sez eff-u, it's our way or the highway!!! From my POV Leica will be the last still camera company standing. The rest will pull the plug when profits drop beyond a certain point."

Kaemu: "We ought to consider the possibility that Canon and Nikon are making a move into FF mirrorless because other companies (especially Sony, which is not small) are aggressively going after their business.

"I submit that this is more the (usual) case of established players being forced to evolve by aggressive new entrants. After all, it's very possible that the large investment Nikon has to make to develop this new type of camera (and new mount, I believe) won't lead to a lot of new sales but rather stop or slow the loss of existing customers. In other words, they have to spend more to stay even.... Not something that excites investors.

"Also, I don't think there is anything wrong with companies that face declining sales volumes trying to adapt in order to remain relevant. Failing to adapt is the worse sin I would say.

"What we see in the camera industry happens in a many others. Over time a couple of dominant players emerge. They often reach market positions they are happy with, and even though they don't collude directly (it's illegal), they find ways to avoid costly price or feature wars. They become a bit complacent and innovation slows down. Customers are the one who lose the most.

"But this opens up opportunities for new entrants or innovative smaller players to shake things up (they have less to lose). Only when one of the small fry becomes successful and large enough to change the balance of power do the main players bestir themselves. I think that is what we are seeing happen (although in this case, the disruptors are themselves large corporations).

"Even if I never buy Sony product, I'm glad they decided to make a real push in this market and are forcing Canikon to think differently."

Barry Reid: "Fundamentally I don’t care as long as I can get what I need from some supplier at a sensible price. Which is why it’s good the one of the big boys is going to be muscling in on Sony’s overpriced little FF mirrorless patch."

Eric Rose (partial comment): "It boils down to value as I define it since I'm the one cutting the cheque."

Scott R.: "I am a longtime Nikon user and their cameras have always had a place in my camera bag—or, at least in the camera cabinet. The D800 was the camera responsible for getting me off film. Up until that camera, I still did all my 'serious' work with medium and larger film formats. I did fall in love with the image files out of the D800 and later D810, but never really fell in love with using the cameras. They always left me wanting. I wanted to not only love the image file quality, but the experience of using and handling the camera too.

"I started to look at Fujifilm and wish that they had a sensor geared toward landscape photographers. Their company was innovating, designing 'cool' cameras, and listening to their photographers. What a concept! I was sold on them a year before the Fuji GFX came out. So when it finally did come to market, I was at the front of the line and won’t look back. I have to say—the GFX is my all-time favorite camera over 20 years of using many different cameras. All the Nikon gear is currently collecting dust and will eventually get sold.

"With that all said as a lead up to my opinion on the matter—I really don’t want to see Nikon succeed with their new mirrorless offering. They’ve been dragging their heels for way too long. Not innovating. Not listening. Not caring. They should be losing some of the pie to Fujifilm and others. Personally, I can’t see anything they could do at this point to win me back to using their products going forward. And I suspect I’m not alone—it seems many photographers have switched off to Sony and Fuji and others over the past few years. It’s no longer enough to simply stay in the middle of the road serving the status quo. As a consumer with more options available than ever, I want to use products by companies that I align with. Companies offering innovative products that are a joy to use and at fair prices, who care about their customer and about maintaining that relationship.

"Nikon—it’s too little too late."

Jim Wolf: "I have little interest in this camera or any other mirrorless. I use digital for work, including shooting high school sports, so the DSLR works for me. When it comes to personal work, I shoot film and am moving backwards from semi-auto Nikons to thread-mount Leicas. Keep in mind that Canon and Nikon both got their starts in the photo field by imitating Leica and Contax. So having them imitate Sony, Panasonic, et al., is nothing new for them."

Roger Overall: "You're right about a lack of innovation. I mean, just look at the marketing. Gradually revealing the silhouette of a new camera. [Sarcasm dial up to 11] That's never been done before. [Sarcasm dial back down to 0]. I don't think this camera deserves to succeed. If it does succeed, I'll feel like money will be diverted away from companies that are interested in innovation. Instead it'll go to lazy companies. Less money going to the innovators means smaller R&D budgets and less innovation for us. That's how I'll feel, anyway. If it is a remarkable and revolutionary product, then it deserves to take over the world. (I have doubts it will be, though.)"

Matt: "Personally, I'm much more interested in seeing Nikon succeed than Canon (though I use neither). For one, I think it would be sad to see a company so interwoven with the history of photography as Nikon fail, especially after to so many other old brands have fallen away in the last few decades. But secondly, even though both companies have been slow to get aboard the mirrorless train, I think Canon in general has been far more guilty of complacency about innovation and their market position in recent years, and could use a good kick in the pants for once."

hugh crawford (partial comment): " I hope that Nikon and the other traditional camera companies at least make some sort of a splash in mirrorless if for no other reason than giving Sony some competition."

David Brown: "I'm a retired mechanical engineer and I've been using SLR cameras since 1966, so I've used a lot of them. I'd been expecting mirrorless FF cameras since the first digital SLRs appeared. Why? They're simpler and have fewer moving parts, and so should be cheaper to make and more reliable in use. And quieter, too."

Mike replies: I think I predicted about 10 years ago that SLRs would be gone in ten years. For just the reasons you state. Good thing people never check up on old predictions!  :-)

Eamon Hickey: "Just to be a noodge: Measured by overall sales (i.e. not limited to their camera businesses), Sony and Panasonic are significantly bigger companies than Canon and much, much bigger than Nikon. Ricoh (parent of Pentax) and Fujifilm are also much bigger than Nikon, although not bigger than Canon. Among current prominent mainstream camera manufacturers, Nikon and Olympus are, in relative terms, the spunky little guys (again, viewing overall, not just in cameras.) (Leica, as always, is a beast apart.)

"But I guess that is neither here nor there; I understand your point. One of the things I've really lamented since the early days of the digital era is how limited our choices are. I miss the wildly varied ecosystem of the film era, especially the 1950s–1970s; so many fundamentally different kinds of cameras from so many interesting, if ill-starred, manufacturers."

Sharon: "I recently bought a Fuji GFX and love it. I hope everybody buys Fujis so they keep making them. 😀 "

Andrew Molitor: "I have no particular enmity toward Nikon or Canon, and so no particular opinion on whether or not they deserve to succeed. I do think they're well positioned to earn your respect back, though.

"In rough terms, Sony has proved out the market in the so-called Early Adopter space, with a classic strategy for Early Adopters. They have a bunch of products, they're always tinkering, and to be blunt their products appear to be buggy and weird. Nobody loves their menus, and they keep running in little annoying bugs that get their target market up in arms (star eater! Arg! no uncompressed RAW files! arg!).

'"Nikon and Canon have clearly decided at the same time that this is the moment the Mainstream market jumps in. All they have to do is build solid dependable cameras that employ this new technology (yes, I know, mirrorless isn't 'new' but to the mainstream market the idea of a DSLT class camera with an EVF is still 'new') and deliver whatever the Nikon/Canon experience is.

"I don't think Sony is dying at the 'whole product' concept, but it still feels far more like they make widgets, not products. Nikon and Canon know how to deliver 'whole products,' they have a clear idea of whatever it is that the Nikon experience is, and what the Canon experience is, and they ought to be able to deliver it, if they have the will behind these products.

"And that's what I mean by an opportunity to earn your respect. They might well fumble it, but they're definitely positioned to make the leap, to do it right, and to step up to the next generation of photographic tech. They won't do it with innovation, they'll do it by building a good plan and executing it.

"This is literally straight out of Crossing the Chasm and it's the moment of truth for Sony. If Canon and Nikon execute well, it's lights out for Sony.

"Remember, Kodak built the first DSLRs."

Eric Brody: "Maybe Apple or Google will come up with a 'real' camera. That will be the end of all of these companies who are rehashing old ideas. It's pathetic that we have to buy cards to put into cameras, they should all have built in memory and lots of it. Perhaps a card as overflow. It's pathetic that we have to go through complex menus to get these things to do what we want and it's really pathetic that doing something as simple as transferring images to a computer (Airdrop anyone?) is such a big deal. Bring on the competition; let's see some real innovation. What I mentioned above should have been available 10 years ago!"

Thom Hogan: "Who cares who's baking the pie? All a photographer should care about is that the pie is better. Having more cooks experimenting with pies is good news, period."

Mike replies: I understand your hands are tied because you no doubt know all about the new products but can't discuss them yet, while I know nothing about them and can wander around babbling like a brook.  :-]

But...not necessarily. The backgrounder here is that I was shocked at how easily Canon overtook Sony and Olympus for the number one rank in mirrorless cameras in the Japan home market in 2017, with the introduction of a couple of not bad but hardly market-beating cameras and a few lenses. That's enough to take the top spot?! Solely because it's Canon. A few years earlier, Samsung had a much better camera than Canon's M5 or M6, and Samsung got chased off into the tall grass. I don't know how anyone can take Canon's 2016 and 2017 mirrorless ILC offerings and put them on one side of the balance scale, and then put all of Sony's on the other side, and then consider it rational when the scales tilt in Canon's favor. Photographers won't be better off if energetic companies with full (albeit somewhat haphazard) product lines can be poached so effectively with that much ease and that little effort.

Que sera, sera, of course....

Al DaValle: "Yes...I certainly hope both Nikon and Canon succeed and thrive. Sony, Panasonic and Fuji are great companies making great cameras. But I definitely don't feel these guys need protection or sympathy. These are huge international corporations doing what they do best...innovating and serving the market with great products. The more suppliers the better for everyone...especially us photographers.

"I am a longtime Nikon customer and feel they have served me very well over the years. I have no animosity for them given the fact they do not have a meaningful mirrorless offering yet. My mirrorless kit is Fuji which I love and will likely stick with.

"Nikon has consistently delivered top quality, professional and dependable gear that I have loved using. I'm not caught up on who is best at any given moment. That's a moving target. Chasing that with our purchasing decisions is a fools errand. I simply know Nikon has served me well for many years. From a pragmatic point of view I have thousand of dollars invested in Nikon and Nikon-compatible lenses. I plan and hope to continue to use those lenses for a very long time. I suppose I need Nikon to do well if I can be assured this will be possible. And I have many friends who feel the same way about Canon.

"I applaud Sony, Fuji, Panasonic and Olympus for their innovation and creativity. They have helped establish a new market segment defined by real needs. They have done this knowing full well the DLSR market leaders would eventually enter this new segment when they felt the time is right. These innovators are strong enough and large enough to maintain a meaningful piece of this market as long as they continue to innovate and provide great customer service."

Jim Richardson: "Rooting for Nikon here. For all of the five decades of my career Nikon has been building cameras for professionals—and supporting professionals, responding to their needs, making new pictures possible. No other single company has the history and longevity of commitment. Foibles? Perhaps. Heart? Plenty."